It has been a while since my last post. The delay was caused partly by my busy work schedule, partly by the boredom of early spring training baseball, and partly by my desire to finish Toby Moskowitz and Jon Wertheim’s incredible book Scorecasting.
I have to admit, I was pretty skeptical when the publisher was pitching the book as The Freakonomics of Sports. It didn’t just live up to that moniker, it fundamentally changed the way I understand sports, and, for that matter, basic human psychology.
I couldn’t do the book justice with a short review, so, I thought I would take two of the chapters and tie them back to the Rays. Today, attendance and curses.
In the final chapter of the book, Moskowitz and Wertheim offer a compelling argument that the Chicago Cubs aren’t cursed, they simply have no business justification to try and win. Generally, they conclude, teams see an increase in attendance in direct proportion to their on-field success. So, teams try to win because wins mean more paying customers. But, if people are coming (0r, gulp, not coming) regardless of the on-field outcome, then the team doesn’t have a lot of reason to try and win.
So, Cubs aside, that begs the question that every major media outlet beat to death last fall: Why weren’t we hanging from the rafters in the Trop? Was it because we don’t care about the on-field outcome? Are we the anti-Cubs?
Everyone has offered a guess for 2010′s blue seat brigade. Carl Crawford and Matt Garza seem to think we, as fans, are apathetic. Talking heads think that this “isn’t a baseball town” (even though it has stocked the Major Leagues for generations). I, and other good-looking smart people like me, blamed the attendance problems on the economy.
I asked Toby and Jon about the economy and they responded that they hadn’t specifically looked at economic conditions nor had they done a lot to control for it, aside from looking at the Cubs and White Sox who share a city and, therefore, are presumably equally impacted by the local economy.
So, I went back and, courtesy of Baseball Reference, tracked the Rays 2010 attendance based on wins. Check it out:
The good news is, based on this crude graph (but come on, I made a graph, you have no idea how monumental that is, my 8th grade math teacher’s head just exploded) the Rays fit the general pattern. When they win, they see an increase in attendance. When they lose, they see a decrease in attendance. Each time there is a spike in attendance (light blue), there is a corresponding increase in wins (dark blue). Each time there is a dip in attendance, there is no corresponding increase in wins (this chart only has wins so, a flat portion of the win line means the Rays didn’t win). That means, the Rays didn’t lose attendance after a win. I think that is good. Right?
If Steve Duemig read stuff, he’d likely respond “who cares about blue graphs, I saw blue seats during a pennant run” (actually, he wouldn’t be that witty, he would say ‘harumph, harumph, harumph, golf, hockey, golf, hockey, Gruden’). Exactly, Steve. Exactly.
The increases in attendance following wins shows that Rays fans are just like fans in every baseball market (except the north side of Chicago). That means the failure to sell out games has to come from some external factor unrelated to actual enjoyment of baseball, like, say, the economy. (The Rays incredible TV ratings also confirm this).
There are a ton of other factors that might be contributing to the lack of sellouts in addition to, or instead of, the local economy. I am just satisfied to learn that we like baseball in Tampa Bay just like I thought we did so, I will leave the identification of the external factor limiting attendance to people that are, you know, qualified. Toby, Jon, I am looking forward to Scorecasting 2: Live from Tampa Bay.
[Come on back tomorrow - or maybe the next day - for the second half of my Scorecasting review]
A question. Why is attendance at Florida State League games so low? I doubt the economy has much to do with that as they are very inexpensive, much less than a movie for example. I checked attendance figures for all affiliated minor leagues a few years ago, and the FSL was last in total and average attendance of all full season leagues, and poorer than most short season leagues as well. In some cases, it even was worse than short season leagues in total attendance.
Even the relatively successful FSL franchises with new stadiums were not on par with attendance in other leagues. And most of the franchises were among the poorest in all of minor league baseball. In addition to Brooklyn and Staten Island, three NY-Penn league teams drew more fans than any FSL team in 2009. In the Sally League, the lowest attendance would have ranked 4th in the FSL, and while our highest attendance was 171,000+ in Port Charlotte, they had 8 teams between 200,000-430,000 fans. The Carolina League is also high A, and had one of eight teams under 100,000 fans. The FSL had 8 of 12.
Doesn’t this suggest that baseball has a problem in Florida apart from the economy? And I say this as a rabid Rays fan who is irritated by the national obsession with the Trop’s attendance. I am not sure it is relevant that minor league attendance is so poor here, but think it may be an indicator to consider.
An interesting take, Bob. I would propose that FSL attendance is relevant to an extent. I think we would best be served by looking at many years worth of attendance numbers, as 2009 was rough around these parts. I still think the economy (or at least household economics) has plenty to do with the FSL turnout. As we all know, baseball (in any league) competes against a host of activities for Floridians leisure budget. While, an FSL game may run you less than a movie, it will cost you more than paddling down the hillsborough, sitting on the beach, or one’s couch. In short, I don’t think it’s a ‘baseball thing’ as much as it is a ‘Florida’ thing. I would be curious to see how California’s attendance stacks up…
As far as California League attendance, in the same year (2009), only 1 of its 10 teams had less than 100,000 fans attend, which would have placed it 4th lowest in the FSL and within 3000 or so of the 3 teams just higher there.
On the other hand, 6 of the 10 teams had between 200,000-267,000 fans pay to get in, and one more with less than 2000 fewer fans than the FSL’s #2 attendance. (The best FSL attendance was 171,314.) That team and another would have ranked 3rd and 4th highest in the FSL, not 3rd and 4th lowest as they were in the Cal. League.
In fact, if you are correct that it is a “Florida” thing, that is a real problem, more than the economic explanation is. It suggests that this is not a baseball state, at least as far as supporting a team with attendance, and that is something I hope is not true.
That is also an interesting comparison but, I think the Cal League is distinguishable from the FSL for a few different reasons.
First, aside from San Jose and Rancho Cucamonga, none of the Cal League teams are in Major League markets. Second, Cal League teams are not in markets with seasonal populations (like Fort Myers, Port Charlotte, Brevard, Palm Beach, and St. Lucie). Third, I am not an expert in minor league history but, outside of Clearwater and Daytona, there are not very many legacy franchises in the FSL. The teams in the FSL seem to move around a lot. The Cal League, at least at first blush, seems to have a higher number of longtime markets.
That is a cool concept but I think the FSL has a couple different problems. First, the best FSL stadiums are either in cities that were crushed by the economy (Ft. Myers) or that are near Major League parks (Clearwater/Tampa). Second, all the FSL stadiums are outdoor and, for the most part, totally exposed to the sun. That is great during the spring but, brutal during the summer. Third, I think the FSL is poorly marketed. I don’t know why but, very few of the best marketing schemes in the Minor Leagues come out of the FSL. It’s weird but that is always the impression I got.
Good point though.
//bizofbaseball.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=4698:minor-league-baseball-draws-414-million-fans-for-2010&catid=19:latest-milb-news&Itemid=34
I am not sure this will show up; it is an article claiming that minor league baseball has bucked the economic downturn. The chart within it indicates just how poor the FSL does compared to other leagues.
I do not know how badly other areas have been hit nor how poorly the FSL markets itself. Those are certainly important points to consider. But I do go to lots of games here. Most are in the evening when the weather is perfect for baseball and the searing sun is a factor for only a few innings if at all. Ordinarily games are played with a gentle breeze wafting over the fans as the evening cools to lovely temperatures.
And as far as I know, all minor league parks are outdoor.
I have attended games in the Texas, Sally and Carolina leagues. My experience merits a small sample warning, but the heat, sun and humidity there were at least as bad as they are in Florida, and from what I know of weather patterns, they can be much worse.
On the other hand, Stu Sternberg seems to think that baseball can draw in Florida, and I certainly trust his economic wisdom and judgment far more than I do any dubious hypotheses the (probably) irrelevant information about minor league attendance suggest.
I honestly don’t know how much the factors I have identified are effecting the FSL’s numbers either. My knowledge of the FSL was limited and is now more than 10 years old. So I don’t know that it is worth a lot. For the most part, I am just guessing (hoping?) because the daunting reality of a correlation between the FSL numbers and the Rays would be depressing.
Even if there is a baseball issue in Florida generally, I am not sure it is totally relevant to the Rays’ attendance in Tampa Bay specifically. I am a native Tampan and think there is good evidence, based on the heavy following of amateur baseball, that there is heavy interest. However, that could merely be the circles I travel in without much empirical evidence to support such a conclusion.