Fall is officially over and the long, hard, baseball winter is upon us. (I can’t say that weather winter is upon us because, if you live in The Ray Area, you know that we have a month or two before it actually gets cold).
Commenter Jonathan helped me finally close the book on 2011 by asking about a 2012 roadmap. As you know, your wish is my command here at TRA.
Truth be told, I have started to write a about the Rays offseason priorities a few different times but have run into a couple of different road blocks. First, despite the Rays’ glaring holes last summer, any improvements this winter are going to require some hard — likely unpopular — choices I wasn’t ready to face so close to the amazing September run. Second, every time I started writing it came out like the position-by-position breakdown you see everywhere else. One of my primary goals is to keep TRA from looking or sounding like anything else you read in the newspaper or on the internet so, I stopped and ditched those attempts.
Maybe it is best to start the winter with a short list of the things we know (or at least the things we think we know) about the 2012 Rays:
- James Shields will be there;
- So will Kyle Farnsworth;
- Kelly Shoppach will not;
- We will have starting pitching in spades;
- But, we are in desperate need of bats to support those arms; and
- We have to rebuild the bullpen again, despite its surprising 2011.
I think we’ll be able to expand and revise this list as the winter plays out and Andrew Friedman shows us his hand a little. For now, I am just counting cards.
That said, let me give you two thoughts to chew on this week. I will try to make a point to flesh out each idea in a full post sometime this week or next.
First, almost everyone agrees that the Rays are going to trade a starting pitcher for a bat. By my count, they have 6-7 legitimate rotation contenders with another 1-2 just outside the pack. But, based on their actions so far, and yesterday’s story in the Times, James Shields will not be traded. I know this is going to sound crazy, but doesn’t that make David Price the best trade candidate? (For those of you that just threw your laptop out of the window in anger, this is where you left off.) Just think about it. Will his value ever be higher? Wasn’t he a little exposed down the stretch due to his reliance on the fastball? Doesn’t a Price move save the club money and return legitimate lineup additions? Just sayin.
Second, I know the Rays were not constructed through free agency but, maybe this is the winter to throw a hat into one of three rings. Even if the Rays cannot ultimately land Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder, doesn’t it make sense to get in the game? It changes the negative narrative about the stadium and drives up the ultimate price Boston or New York pays. Aren’t both of those good outcomes? Outside of Pujols or Fielder, if the Rays were willing to make a FA splash, shouldn’t Friedman be first in line at the Jose Reyes booth? Is there a player that better fits our style? Is there any doubt that Joe could get more from him? Just sayin.
OK, talk amongst yourselves. It is that time of year.
Well Mark, you can probably already guess my position.
I have been defending the pitching-speed-defense approach and the lack of need for a “Big Bat” for two years. I heard it when the Rays were scoring more runs than anyone. I heard it when most Rays fans still seemed to think you’ve got to score like an NFL team to win games. It was only very late this season that the majority of Rays fans began taking pride in “32 straight wins scoring 5 runs or more”.
IMO, AndyF and Joe will make absolutely no moves that they feel will diminish the defense even a smidge…no matter how good the “Bat” is. So any “Bat” will probably have to be a Gold Glove-caliber player as well to have any look. Beyond that, Joe won’t take anyone who isn’t all about the team and his teammates. Headlines like “Reyes Bunts and Sits His way to Glory” isn’t going to glorify him in Joe’s or Andy’s eyes…even if he didn’t coast 25% of payroll.
I don’t see any problem with pitching-speed-defense. But, the winter is about building a well-rounded team. Pitching-speed-defense is a great way to cover other offensive failings but, title teams are well-rounded. A bat or two to support Longoria puts us over the hump and stretches the margin of error for our pitching/defense.
Lets be real the rays dont sign Big Type A free agents. we run the organization around the draft so I dont think friedman is thinking of losing 2 top draft picks for an upcoming draft. Thus this gives us two options to get better; from within or from trade. We have the prospects, To make multiple packages to get a few players. I will leave that up to friedman to get creative, yet ive read many crazy ideas around the internet. Also it is pretty clear that we need a bat and i would be dissapointed if nothing happens from now to july 31st.
I know they never have worked through free agency (thank you mental block hiding Pat Burrell) but that is the reason that now is the time. The current model can’t work for long because of copy-catters. Look at Oakland. We need to move on to the next phase. What if we supplemented the drafting we already did with one free agent? Just one? That isn’t a total reach, is it?
honestly losing 2 picks doesnt mean a thing to us because the way we racked up picks at the last draft. I think having an off year in the next draft wont put much of a dent on us. but the fact that it takes money to sign free- agents. I predict the rays payroll for 2012 is 45-55 mil. and 55 was generous (very). There is no way we go into 2012 with all our pitchers. Also before I begin I see no reason matt moore doesnt make opening day. that being said i see 4 pitchers and a big group fighting for that last spot but quite possibly we could have that 6 man rotation but we know how shields and price feel about that. so this right here is a big move waiting to happen.
Ok so how do we get better? well From what I see we have an outfield: Desmond, BJ, Joyce. third: longo 2nd: Zobrist. Our holes are first, Short, Catcher, and DH. Two of these sound like it will be solved after we do anticipated resignings of kotchman and damon So how do we get better and catcher and short. I say sign Ramon hernandez or jose molina to make a platoon with Jaso or our other catchers. And for shortstop we either have to give brigniac a 2nd chance or trade for one I think thats would be the hardest issue to solve.
There is a lot here. Worthy of a few posts. Catcher is the biggest hole. I am not sure there is an easy solution there. In the end, we’ll probably end up with a less terrible option than 2011. As for short, why aren’t we talking Zobrist there? I mean, he is a shortstop that we converted to accommodate Bartlett. Maybe we just put him back. Right? Finding a second-baseman is a lot easier than finding a shortstop.
Don’t think BZ provides the same level of D at SS. Arm and range don’t compare to other options.
This is actually a point I never considered. My gut says he is a slight downgrade at SS when compared to Brignac but about even or better than Sean Rodriguez. No idea where that impression comes from.
Why do they need to build the bullpen again? Only lost Juan Cruz….::head scratch::
Maybe “build” was too strong. My only point on the bullpen is that they held on and turned in a good effort but, it was by the hair on their chinny-chin-chin. I don’t think we can go through the winter expecting a similar 2012 effort from that group.
I think the prospect of pursuing a legitimate star through FA is interesting, If ever, now would be the time. I think tickets and viewership were down last season because of the feelings created during the offseason. No one anticipated a playoff birth, certainly not one filled with as much drama as September provided us.
You may recall a comment I made awhile back about Miami’s situation. To paraphrase I suggested that if in fact Miami see a boost in fan turnout, would it fuel the flames to get the Rays a new venue. Your response at the time was, what if the complete opposite happens and Miami sees no improvement. I was reflecting on this when I saw the news about the new look Marlins pursuing Pujols, Reyes, and generally any top FA that will listen to them. So now I am left wondering, if Miami moves all their chips to the center of the table and gives the fans everything they could ask for, what happens if they still fail? I hate the think that Miami is a direct reflection of Tampa, but in the eyes of public perception the Rays and Marlins are often grouped together. Almost every article I read will say they both suffer from lack of baseball fans in south Florida.
On the flip side of that coin, what if this gamble pays some dividends? If Miami sees huge fan base increases throughout the duration of the season next year, I’m not talking about an opening week of sell outs, will it put pressure on the Rays to follow their blue print? The pros and cons of a new venue have been discussed nearly to death, but I find it extremely hard to imagine the Rays moving to Tampa as a bad thing. If they were located on the east side of Tampa, near the I-4 and I-75 intersection, they could draw more fans from central Florida and essentially tap into a new fan base. Making the trip from Orlando would no longer be impossible to do on occasion. I am located in Lakeland, I can tell you for a fact that if they moved I would buy a half season ticket. Think of the tourists possibilities, they could group together ticket packages for other attractions in the area. Throw that together with a splash signing like what Miami is attempting to pull off, and who knows what you could end up with. Just some random thoughts, what do you think Mark?
I agree about everything you are talking about travis. If the Marlins Have great support the only thing we the rays can do is realize we need to get a new stadium this would be great and force more pressure on baseball to get the rays a new place. I will admit i bought a shirt and cap online to help support our NL counter-part. If yall too would like too or even the rays use the promo code INSIDER15 to get 15% off also good now for maybe a present for someone. But getting back to baseball the marlins are making all the right moves and I really do see them signing reyes to add another latino player and buerle to add 200 innings. Also IDK how ticket sales have been for the marlins but I would like to see 25,000 attendence avg for their 33,000 seat park this year.
correction the stadium seats 37,000 but 25,000 a game times 81 games is 2,025,000 for attendance in 80 games this year they had 1,520,562 which is about the same for the rays who had 81 games at 1,529,188
Great discussion here. This deserves its own post. A post that would have run today but-for Hellickson’s award. I’ll try to write on it this week. Thanks for the discussion!