Lets start with congratulations to David Price.  In fact, lets add congratulations to the Rays’ crack PR staff for helping ensure that the Cy vote didn’t come down to established market vs. “small” market.

There is more to say about Price’s win but I am not going to be the person to say it.  After 2.5 seasons of writing in this space, I have decided to move on to other obligations so a better writer can step in.  The official change will come after the details get finalized but I will not be writing on a regular basis in 2013.  Don’t worry.  The Rays are not going to be unrepresented in the ESPN landscape nor is another newby going to fill my shoes.

This is good news.  While I’ll miss the conversation we’ve had in this space.  My departure all but ensures a magical summer.  I am leaving primarily because my wife and I are expecting our fourth child in January and I only have kids in playoff years.  To wit:

• Gwendolyn was born in May 2008.
• Catherine Grace was born in February 2009.
• John was born in September 2011.

I don’t know a lot about advanced stats, but I do know that my “infant to playoff” ratio is the best in baseball.

So, let me end with a thank you to everyone that clicked and read.  A thank you to everyone that commented — including my all-time leading commenter Merrill.  And a thank you to everyone that humored my crazy theories.

I’d be remiss if I didn’t add a thank you to the incomparable Justin Hancy at H&H Unlimited Media.  You cannot imagine how computer illiterate I am.  Justin not only built this blog for me.  He taught me to use it.  A feat to be celebrated in the annals of American history.  Sober Justin is a god among men and anyone in need of internet assistance would be wise to call on him.

When Rob Neyer called me three years ago and asked if I’d be interested in starting a blog, I sort of chuckled.  I didn’t know if I had the time.  I didn’t know if I wanted to be referred to as a “blogger” (my wife has had an unhealthy amount of fun taunting me with that title).  I didn’t know if I had enough to say or if anyone would even read it.

I have been consistently stunned by the response.  Thanks for alleviating all those concerns and giving me a shot.  I am hopeful that I’ll find a place to continue to write occasionally.   But, until then, I bid you farewell.

The Times has a blurb this morning in the business section about a news Rays ballpark.  Apparently, Chuck Sykes has gathered a group of industry leaders that will publish a report evaluating options for raising the estimated $500MM-$600MM needed to build a new yard for our boys, regardless of where that yard is located.

Unfortunately, the committee didn’t ask for my input so, I am certain their report won’t have the following idea.

We need a Ballpark Tax.

Before you cover me in tea, let me explain.  We don’t need to tax residents of Tampa Bay.  After all, it is only partially our fault that the Trop is hanging around our neck.  (Who builds a ballpark without a team?  Right?  Who elected that County Commission?).  We need a Ballpark Tax to be levied on the Chicago White Sox, Seattle Mariners, and San Francisco Giants.  After all, they used us as pawns to get their brand new ballparks without any compensation.  Well, the bill has come due.

When I was a kid, the Sox, Mariners, and Giants all broke my heart.

The Sox were moving here in 1988.  It was done.  Commiskey Park was a dump and the Sox were getting run out of town.  Then, at the 13th hour (I remember hearing a story once that the Sox gave the state a midnight deadline and the governor unplugged his clock to give himself an extra hour.  But I can’t find any proof of that online.  Of course, this being the internet, my 8-year-old memory is good enough proof), the state agreed to build new Commiskey and we were sunk.

Then, in 1993, the Giants were coming.  The team was sold to Vince Naimoli.  Special editions of newspapers were printed.  Aspiring baseball bloggers wore Tampa Bay Giants T-Shirts to Coleman Middle School.  And then it was undone.  The NL didn’t approve the move so the club was sold to someone in San Fran who built that gem Joe Buck can’t stop raving about night after night.

Then again, in 1995, the Mariners were coming to Tampa.  Amidst their run to the AL Wild Card they were flying local government officials to the Kingdome to survey our new club.  Then SafeCo was approved.  Later that year, Vince was awarded the D-Rays.

In the meantime, as a community, we were the other woman.  We were the greatest bargaining chip in the history of professional sports. Every owner tells every municipality ‘if you don’t build me a stadium we’ll leave.’  During my young life, baseball owners were saying ‘if you don’t build me a ballpark, we’ll play in Tampa Bay…Tomorrow Night!’

Our local officials might have been giving the milk away for free in the 80s and 90s but, now it’s time for Chicago, Seattle, and San Fran to buy the cow.  I am sure they like their new parks.  I am sure they like their revived attendance numbers.  Well, that didn’t just happen.  Our emotional turmoil made it happen for them.

Since 2000, the Mariners have draw 32,585,556 fans to SafeCo Field.  The White Sox have drawn 45,977,250 since 1991 and the Giants have drawn 41,428,121 since 2000.   That’s 119,990,927 fans.  At $1 per head, we’re 1/3 of the way to a new ballpark in Tampa Bay.

So, pass the tax.  $1 per seat at SafeCo, Whatever-New-Commiskey-Is-Called-Now, and AT&T Park.

At long last, it is World Series time.

There is plenty of winter ahead.  Plenty of time to talk about what the Rays should do.  Plenty of time to worry about what the Yankees and Red Sox do (John Farrell?  Seriously?  I know he is a Boston guy and appears to be a decent manager but perhaps Red Sox nation was looking for more of a splash.  Right?)  For now, lets revel in the one part of the baseball postseason that is above reproach (unless, of course, it rains).

I think I will be rooting for Detroit.  In my experience, most baseball people are league-loyal.  They root for their league champion like political parties.  I have no particular objection to the Tigers, I really like Jim Leyland (inside story — he smokes on team charter flights because he is the manager and screw the FAA), and the Rays fan in my would like to see Joaquin Benoit pitch well.  Also, there are good Rays reasons to root against the Giants.  Aubrey Huff plays for them.  Tim Beckham plays for us.  Bruce Bochy’s hat is way too small.  Etc.

More important, though, I think the World Series validates the Rays approach to team-building.  After scraping by for two seasons, I was beginning to harbor some doubt that tons of starting pitching, a lucky bullpen, and just enough offense could actually win it all.  But the 2012 postseason has reminded us all that luck is really, really important.  A GM simply has to get his team into the conversation and then hope the ball bounces the right way. (Incidentally, here is a sportsbook review if you have a ball-bouncing prediction).

That was San Fran’s story in 2010 and appears to be their story again in 2012.  Same goes for Detroit.  I don’t know if the Rays will win the 2013 World Series.  But I am confident that Andrew can get them into the conversation.  And, in the end, that might be the place his job ends.

Last night was one final knife.  One more great pitching performance squandered.

Lets not talk about.  Because there are more important things.  I’m not ready to move on to what went wrong.  And I can’t bring myself to think about what we do now.  Mostly because the body is still warm and the family is in the other room: there is one game to go.

Which raises an interesting point.  There is still game 162.  Shouldn’t this be a thing?

Great franchises are built on great traditions.  And great traditions are built upon memorable moments.  Game 162 might be the first cornerstone in the Rays’ lore our grandchildren recount.  Sound crazy?  Try to say ‘The Giants Win the Pennant!’ less than three times.  You can’t.  It’s like the Lays of baseball radio calls.

Game 162 should be our thing.  It should be a party day.  The standings shouldn’t matter (because game 162 has mattered in the standings just a handful of times).  I am envisioning a tradition like Opening Day (that every team seems to have bastardized with overly programmed nostalgia) but better.  Like Patriots Day in Boston.  A sold out ballpark.  Tailgating.  A nice send off for our boys regardless of whether they are heading home for the winter or heading to October baseball.

This could be huge.  So, who’s with me?  Is this a good idea?  If it is, what should we call it?  Closing Day.  What about just 162.

…I’m still alive.

I just am being cautious because:

September 18, 2012: Loyalty vs. Honesy, Red Sox 7, Rays 5;

September 10, 2012: Nice Guys Rarely Finish First, Orioles 9, Rays 2 (9-11-12)

September 5, 2012: Something Interesting is Afoot, Yankees 6, Rays 4.

But this thing we got going, that will remain unnamed, just makes me feel like this all the time:

I think we can all agree that this is one of the toughest stretch in club history.  It is definitely the worst period since 2008.  We’re floundering here and, based on the season this pitching staff has had, squandering a potentially huge opportunity.

Watching us go down in flames like this is brutal.  I feel an obligation to be honest about it because I think I will lose credibility with ya’ll.  Clint disagrees.  And I think Clint raises an interesting question worthy of analysis:

Do I have some obligation to be loyal in the face of adversity if I want to call myself a fan?

After all, I write this blog but I am not a journalist.  I’m not even an analyst.  I am just a lawyer that used to work in baseball who still follows the game as a fan.  (While it isn’t the point I think it is worth mentioning that I think most sports journalists take themselves and their subject far too seriously.  But I digress.)  Perhaps I don’t owe the people that regularly read this space any duty of honesty.  Perhaps this is exactly the space that Rays fans should come for some belief in the face of overwhelming doubt.  After all, there is no shortage of negative analysis in the media.  My honest evaluation isn’t some lone voice in a world of overly positive coverage.

The counterpoint, of course, is that loyalty isn’t necessarily inconsistent with honesty.  I can be loyal to the Rays (I watched last night’s debacle) while being frank about their performance.  I try to avoid the gratuitous negativity and sensationalism so common to the media generally and to blogs specifically (I’m the first to admit that I don’t always succeed in my avoidance).  But I think I can root for the Rays to win while being honest about the bad decisions they make that lead to them not winning.  Right?

[This point-counterpoint is a little strained without Brendand.  I tried to call myself an ignorant slut but, it rang hollow.  Bear with me.]

So, I open the floor for discussion.  Does fan-dom require blind faith?  (Yes, you lost tonight, and you lost because you are playing poorly or because you aren’t that good, but I am going to find the silver-lining regardless.)  Or, can fan-dom include some negativity?  (I hope you win tonight but I don’t think you are going to win tonight because you aren’t that good at baseball.)

Mathematically, yesterday’s loss to Baltimore wasn’t a must-win for the Rays.  The Rays are still in the thick of the playoff hunt and still have plenty of opportunities to win the AL East.

But, in a decidedly different way, the Rays’ postseason hopes may have died yesterday.  Baseball is two games being played simultaneously.

There is an odds-based game where outcomes can be predicted with shocking accuracy.  (I am still coming to terms with this understanding of the game but the SABRites are winning me over).  That is the game in real life.

Then there is the game that is played in the heads of players, managers, and average fans.  For players in particular, the mental aspect to the game is as important, if not more important, than the physical aspect.  And, that mental aspect of the game isn’t housed inside the brains of a lot of mathematicians.  (After all, 90% of the game is half mental…)

So, even though yesterday’s game wasn’t a must win mathematically, it was a must win emotionally because BJ Upton declared it a must win.  And, when a player or team declares a game a must-win, only to lose, the player or team logically concludes that they have severely limited their options going forward.  The great American philosopher Crash Davis put it this way:

If a ballplayer thinks he’s playing well because he’s getting laid, or not getting laid, or because he’s wearing women’s underwear, then he is.  And you of all people should know that, Annie.

In the final analysis, it doesn’t matter that the Rays still have a chance.  It doesn’t sound to me like they believe they have a chance (Marc Topkin mentioned on yesterday’s pre-game show that the clubhouse could barely hide it’s disappointment with the first two games in the Baltimore series).  And if they don’t believe they have a chance, they don’t.

The incredible collective performance of the Rays’ pitching staff has been a popular topic of discussion as of late.  Everyone seems to agree that Pitching Wins Championships because that is what some grizzled old guy in West Tampa told them once.

I don’t know if pitching actually wins championships or not.  I do know that we wouldn’t be flirting with another October run without this pitching staff.  But here’s the thing, is it possible that the Rays pitching staff is also responsible, even just a little bit, for the Rays stunning offensive struggles?

Crazy right.  I pitched this idea to my lovely wife about a week and a half ago and she shot it down on takeoff.  She thinks it’s ridiculous.  So, I write this under a cloud of suspicion.

Nevertheless, the thought came back last night while watching Peyton Manning command a huddle.  Peyton is one of those athletes that commands his teammates’ respect.  But, his teammates are also a little afraid of him.  They know he’s good.  They know he is going to hold them to a high standard.  But, most importantly, they know that falling out of his favor is a death knell because management is always going to take his side.

Can you say the same thing about our pitching staff?  Can you say it about any single member of our pitching staff?  Isn’t it possible that the Rays’ pitchers are just too nice?

The starters — the cornerstones upon which the entire franchise is built — seem like an incredibly friendly bunch.  David Price is certainly the team’s clown prince.  He is the leader of all thing fun-and-games that makes the Rays perfect for sports.  James Shields is also just as likeable.  Check out the dugout cutaways most nights, Price and Shields are sitting together leading all the pranks.  The rest of the rotation is comprised of mice.  Talented pitchers, and nice guys, but less than intimidating personalities.

The bullpen is similarly vanilla.  The vast majority of the Rays’ relievers are journeymen that rarely have the ability to intimidate major leaguers and  JP Howell, the long-term presence down the right-field line, is an admitted clown.

That leaves just Fernando Rodney and Kyle Farnsworth.  Both have the scowl but neither seems particularly interested in being anything other than one of the guys.

Why does any of this matter?  It might not.  But the Rays have lost an astounding 11 games in which this pitching staff held the opposing offense to 1 run or 2 runs.  Isn’t it possible that this can be explained by the pitching staff’s odd combination of talen, success, and personality?

Think about it from the perspective of the Rays’ hitters.  Most of those 11 losses have been littered with wasted opportunities with runners in scoring position.  That can be explained by a lack of focus in key situations.  The Rays hitters know that their pitching staff is likely to hang up another 0.  They also know that a poor at bat with RISP, followed by a ‘my bad’ in the dugout, will likely make everything ok with the laboring staff.  So, why would they press?

Isn’t that little bit of fear necessary?  There is a fine line.  Too much fear and everyone starts resenting the team leaders.  But a little fear might be the thing missing from the Rays clubhouse.

Is this crazy?  Can I both compliment the Rays for not taking themselves too seriously while also chastising them for not being serious enough?  Is my, gulp, wife right about this theory?

I was listening to Ron and Ian while driving to a meeting last week (As an aside, I have been pretty hard on Ron Diaz in this space in the past but, I have to admit that he has won me over.  He’s no baseball analyst but his passion for the ballclub cannot be questioned.) and Ian made an interesting observation.  The show was the day after the Bucs’ last pre-season game and the show was splitting time between final roster cuts and the Rays.  Ian said “when we started this show it was hard to get callers that wanted to talk Rays, now we can’t get Bucs callers.”  That comment came back to me this morning when I read this story about Bucs coach Greg Schiano pleading for community support like he’s coaching high school soccer.

Things have really changed in five years.

I have always argued that Tampa, at its core, is a baseball town.  I presume that applies to the larger Bay Area as well but cannot speak as an expert on the sports histories of the other towns.  This town, however, has been football crazy as of late.  I attribute that to a few factors.

First, we’ve had a NFL franchise for a generation.  There are fans, like me, that grew up following the Bucs without having to ditch some other loyalty.  Second, since the early 90s, we have lived within a few hours of the best college football on the planet.  Third, that college football success has been built on the backs of talent farmed, in large part, from the Bay area.

Of course we are football crazy.  We live amidst great football and have for 20+ years.  But that doesn’t change our fundamental character.  That interest doesn’t preclude us from being a baseball town.

I know we aren’t selling the Trop out.  I know we aren’t moving up the league rankings in attendance.  But I still think something is happening.  This time a few years ago, our young stars were the ones begging people to turn off the NFL pre-season and pay attention to something special that was happening at the Trop.  Now, they have our attention (if not our ticket money) and the Bucs are begging for a little love.  Perhaps we are on the verge of some kind of tipping point.

I should be writing about the Rays’ crushing 4-game skid.  I should be writing about the remaining schedule.  I should be writing about the fact that this thing might take all 162 again.  I should be writing about how the machinations necessary for the Republican National Convention upset the Rays’ apple cart at precisely the wrong moment.

But I’m not.  Why?  Because our minor leaguers in Bowling Green are going to be on the cover of High Times this month.

In case you haven’t been following this story, Ryan Brett, Charles Cononie, and Justin Woodall received 50 game suspensions on August 23, when they tested positive for an amphetamine and methamphetamine.  Yesterday, the league announced that Josh Sale will take a 50-game vacation for the same thing.

Yeah.  I know.  It’s like we built the home clubhouse in Bowling Green on the site of an old Chinese opium den.

Of course, all four of the Bowling Green players deny taking PEDs and have no earthly idea why they tested positive.  One claims to have taken some energy pills that may have contained adderall.  While they may not know which substance contained a PED, none are claiming they take no substances.

For some reason (maybe I am just naive, maybe I am too optimistic, maybe I like the view from under this sand), I don’t think these guys are either Josh Hamilton or Barry Bonds.  I don’t think they have fallen into some illicit drug ring in the hills of Kentucky nor do I think they are blatantly cheating to inflate their numbers.  If it were the former, we’d have heard more than just failed drug tests (Remember how much noise the Durham ownership made when Elijah and Delmon were wreaking PR havoc on the Triangle?).  And, A-ball is too far from the Bigs for it to be the latter.

So, to my mind, that leaves one of two explanations.  Either these kids were careless or ignorant about the substances they consumed.  One is an indictment of the player, one is an indictment of the organization.

Every ballplayer (heck, every athlete) at every level tailors their diet for a competitive advantage.  It starts in Little League when your dad makes you drink a certain amount of water on game days (well, I guess these days dads buy expensive sports drinks from the concession stand).  When you reach a high level, you start to study every morsel of food you consume, pair it with a workout regiment, and supplement it with over-the-counter products that promise certain legal results.  This is neither news nor is it illegal.

Moreover, the list of PEDs is long and filled with multi-syllable, scientific sounding words.  (For example, do you know if your favorite energy drink contains ‘Modafinil?’).  The tricky issue is, most PEDs are component parts of readily-available products.  This is not Latimer shooting ‘Roids in The Program.  This is an over-the-counter supplement with a list of ingredients in 8-point font.

Is that an excuse for violating the rules? Not really.  All of these guys are Americans so, they can’t claim the Ortiz defense (David Ortiz claimed that hispanic players are at a disadvantage because the list is published in English).  Plus, they grew up amidst the steroid era so they know baseball takes this very, very seriously.

But I am more concerned about the ignorance than I am the carelessness.  If these guys were careless about ingredients, they will be careless about other things and likely never make the Majors.  But, if they had no idea banned substances could be contained in products purchased at GNC, then the club has some fault in this debacle.  Seems to me that the Rays have a vested interest in making sure their minor leaguers are developing physically just as they are developing as ballplayers. The club should be working with minor leaguers on nutrition and strength training.  They should also be teaching them which supplements are legal and which may contain prohibited substances.

Add in the suspensions of Tim Beckham and Deshun Dixon and there is a clear indication that the Rays need to spend some time this winter addressing this issue in their player development system.