Last week, when Jeff Niemann peppered the backstop at the Big A during his wild return from the DL, I wrote that some rust was to be expected because, at 6’11″, Niemann has more moving parts than most pitchers to get into his rhythm.
During the first five innings last night, I thought his rhythm (and his command), was returning. Then he got to the 6th. Unlike Anaheim, Niemann continued to pound the strike zone when he hit the wall in the 6th. (according to Brooks Baseball, 8 of his 14 pitches in the inning were strikes). But, the problem is, some of those 8 strikes weren’t supposed to be strikes.
Adam Lind’s game-tying double is a perfect example. (The video is here. Go to the 1:00 minute mark.) Lind smoked either a two-seam fastball or a bad slider that was down, in, and over the plate. Right in his nitro-zone. Niemann was definitely trying to get that pitch off-the-plate inside under Lind’s hands. There is no other reasonable explanation for throwing a pitch anywhere near Lind’s hot zone with the go-ahead run on second.
So, that seems to beg the question, why did Niemann miss so badly in such a big spot? Looking at his delivery again, I think it is because he is afraid of re-injuring his arm. Remember, Niemann is a guy with a long history of arm problems whose major league career was delayed by multiple arm injuries. Instead of turning loose a nasty pitch that passes through Lind’s hot zone, he hedged, didn’t test his shoulder, and left the pitch out over the plate.
In fact, fear of injury explains the difference between the way Wade Davis and Niemann have re-emerged from the DL. Davis is using the same aggressive style and delivery he has all year. But Davis doesn’t have a history of injury and likely is not concerned about re-injuring himself.
At the moment, that fear of re-injury is the biggest hurdle between Jeff Niemann and a starring role in a post-season run.
The real problem was Lance (see you later) C. giving up not one but two bombs. Is he off the post season roster? I hope so. good article.
Cormier and Sonnanstine will magically be transformed into Balfour and Hellickson come October.
How do you factor in (hopefully) potsaesson? If you were hoping your pitchers might be pitching in October, do you limit them a bit more so they are each available for a few additional starts later on? Of course if it’s late September and you are way ahead of the competition you skip a few starts, but the Rays are never in that position. So the question would be whether you limit innings say in June and July so you have not exhausted an arm that you’d like to have fresh in late September and October.
Maybe the idea here is for him to go to Durham to get a bit more prepared for sesoan. Typically Spring Training is to work on pitches and results don’t usually matter (unless he absolutely flames out which I find doubtful). This could also be Friedman’s way of making sure the kid knows he has to earn his spot and it is not just given to him. On a typical team without the pitching depth we have I could definitely see him down in Durham for 4-6 weeks then called up but no value in doing this. He has a nice new contract and HAS to play. What if he gets hurt in Durham? What if you trade Davis or Niemann and have an Alex Cobb start the sesoan in Tampa (ooops!!) and all 5 starters are pitching lights out without Moore in rotation then what?Make him #5, skip him from time to time, tag him with an oblique strain in late June so he comes back after ASG with 2-3 weeks rest (DOUBT he is on ASG roster) and let him go the rest of the year.