Last week Mark Simon (Mets fan but not-so-secret Rays admirer) of the Baseball Today podcast had a great interview with Jim Hickey, touching on a number of interesting insights that deserve further review. The full interview can be found here (Hickey interview starts at 27:27).

 On the process of ‘remaking’ someone like Fernando Rodney

 Hickey emphasized that the process really starts with the pro scouting department who identify pitchers with shortcomings that they believe to be relatively easy to fix. Hickey cited the example of Kyle Farnsworth adding a sinker to his arsenal, which led to a career high 50% ground ball rate last season.

 Regarding Rodney, Hickey noted that they really wanted him to get back to throwing his plus-fastball in the strike zone and really focused on this during spring training. On occasion, for example, he would be forced to try and get through an inning only throwing his fastball on the outer edge of the plate. So far of course, this approach has worked apparent miracles for Rodney, with his fastball being located over the plate 67% of the time, compared with four straight years of being below 60% (per Brooks Baseball). Indeed, his previous best effort of 68% was in 2007 while with the Tigers (50.2 IP, 4.26 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 9.6 K/9, 3.7 BB/9), not coincidentally his best season of his career (as measured by fWAR).

Hickey noted that Rodney had been open to anything the team suggested in terms of tweaking his positioning on the mound and his use of different pitches – as had been the case for other rejuvenated members of the ‘pen. You wonder if the over-the-top criticism the likes of Farnsworth and Rodney received while playing in big markets helped the Rays, as they become open to any suggestions given their bruised egos and ‘last chance’ mentality.

On David Price’s development

Hickey confirmed that Price’s increased willingness to throw his off speed stuff earlier in the count has been vital in his improved performance over his last four starts. Indeed, since his inefficient 85 pitch, three inning, three earned run outing in Boston, Price has simply gone 29 innings in four starts with a 1.55 ERA and 27:5 strikeout to walk rate (edit: before the loss to the Yankees).

Without wishing to draw a conclusion from a small amount of information, a quick look at the first pitch thrown to each hitter in Price’s best two starts this year (Apr 24 vs LAA and May 4 vs OAK) clearly backup what was evident when watching the games and what Hickey referenced: Price is varying the way he is attacking hitters. In those two starts, hitters saw fastball on the first pitch 59% and 61% of the time, compared with 81% against the Red Sox. Of particular note were the 16 batters who saw a curve on the first pitch (27%) compared to just 111 in all of 2011 (12%).

 The above diagrams illustrate how Price was able to avoid being predictable and keep hitters on the back foot all day in those great starts against    AL West opponents.

 On Jeremy Hellickson’s low strike to walk ratio

 There was much written about Hellickson in the off season with many pegging him as a regression candidate because of a low batting average on balls in play (BABIP) which suggests he was ‘lucky’ during 2011. Research shows that pitchers generally have limited control over where hit balls land and thus over a long enough period, balls put into play should drop in at an approximate league average rate (.300). In reality this is an oversimplification, as you need to at least consider the strength of the Rays defense behind him along with Hellickson’s ability to induce infield fly balls and weak contact, as explained in a great piece by Bill Baer on the Sweetspot blog.

 One of the ways in which Hellickson could combat any such regression from more balls falling into play would be to up his strikeout rate, which has disappointingly hovered around the 5.5 mark in the majors after sitting above 9.0 at every lower level stop. When asked about this point though, Hickey suggested the team were less concerned with strikeout to walk rate and more with simply cutting down on the total walks (wanting them cut in half). With a simple, repeatable, delivery along with a good demeanor on the mound, Hellickson probably should have less free passes and this is something to watch as his sophomore season progresses.

 On the defensive shifts

 It seems everyone is talking about the Rays’ defensive shifts these days. Most of the reaction has been positive though there are of course still some doubters out there (BA mentioned on the broadcast this week that one of the Yankee coaches suggested teams will catch up with Rays sooner rather than later). Hickey was asked about the pitcher’s role in the famed shifts and he was fairly candid in his answers (without going in to specifics, of course). One of the interesting points Hickey made was that the shift isn’t necessarily designed to force a player to hit into its jaws but rather just putting players where the balls are hit more often.  Hence, a pitcher won’t necessarily be forced to pitch a particular way depending on the defensive alignment.

 The pitching staff doesn’t have a huge say in the positioning of the defense, but do have the right to refuse the shift on a given play if they so wish. Needless to say, it’s Price and Shields who will exercise this option the most with the younger guys tending to defer to management’s decision.

 Against the Angels, Hickey felt that Pujols would have had four or five hits against a vanilla defense, but wound up going 1-11 thanks to the defensive maneuvering orchestrated by Maddon and company. Perhaps teams do adjust in the long term but as with many of the Rays ‘extra 2%’ type moves, you feel that Maddon will be onto the next scheme by then. In the mean time, the shift must at least be worth a handful of runs over the course of a season (though I’d like to see someone quantify this).  

 One thing that is always clear when listening to Hickey, or Dave Martinez, or really anyone in the organization is that everyone buys into what the team is trying to do. Everyone has to fit into the team’s style, not necessarily with the same character, but with a willingness to try different things and backup their decisions with data and fact rather than custom and lore. Hickey fits that description perfectly and will hopefully continue to have great success with this talented bunch of pitchers.