John Romano has the latest doomsday [ok, I agree that adjective was too strong so I dropped it. Ain't the internet grand?] off-season scenario in today’s St. Pete Times. He writes:
Trust me John, this hurts me more than it hurts you.
Which is precisely how they will proceed going into next week’s winter meetings in Orlando. They will look for the perfect deal. They will try to find the perfect player on the margins. They will operate as if a pennant is still within reach.
And if that doesn’t work, they should be willing to go in a completely different direction.
The baseball winter meeting is one of those non-news events that news organizations have to make into a big deal because there isn’t anything else newsworthy going on (kind of like NFL training camp and “best shape of his career” day at the start of spring training). We have been suffering through two months of rumors and speculation and, finally, all the big players are going to be in the same hotel for a few days so, let’s make it seem like the only relevant off-season action happens in six days.
The winter meetings are a chance to sign some guys, but they aren’t the only chance. So, John, your false urgency have earned you a membership in the Blow-It.com fraternity.
I’d write more but our illustrious Sweet Spot leader Rob Neyer beat me to the punch:
Sorry, but I don’t see that happening because I think the guys who run the organization are just too bloody smart to reach Opening Day without putting a roster together that’s capable of winning 90 games. And if you can win 90, you can win — by dint of luck or acumen — 95, and get into the playoffs.
I don’t think the Romano column is a doomsday scenario at all. It is merely considering the possible option that should the search for players to fill spots this year be unsatisfactory, the Rays might prefer to aim at 2012 rather than simply try to win a few more games in 2011. As in 2009 when they traded Kazmir, it is not a case of giving up but rather of assessing the probabilities and acting accordingly, simultaneously trying to win now but recognizing that was unlikely and so building for the immediate future.
Of course, should management agree that there is already a 90 win team on hand, the Rays will aim to contend now. Romano is not saying that won’t happen, only that should their assessment be more pessimistic that they will not aim at mediocrity but instead try to reload. I don’t think it is certain this is already a 90 win team; there is legitimate room for disagreement on that score.
Playing for 2011 or 2012 is not really the “doomsday” scenario I was referring to. The real critique I have of the column is that the decision as to whether we can put a 90-95 win team on the field in 2011 has to be made the second week of December. He overstates the importance of the winter meetings and implies that the Rays are giving up on 2011 unless they make a big splash next week.
Fair enough. And I agree it is possible to read the column as focusing on the next few weeks. But I do not think that is the intention. Note, for example, that he posits the possibility that the Rays wait until the July 31 trade deadline to decide what course to take. It seems to me he is simply using the winter meetings as a jumping off point for thinking about how the Rays will proceed this off-season. His references to signing free agents indicates that he is not focusing exclusively on the winter meetings nor does he think the Rays have to make a splash in the upcoming week.
I think “doomsday” is too strong a word for his approach. In my view, it is a very well-reasoned and moderate argument seeking to consider the options facing the Rays throughout the post-season. Doomsday suggests doom and gloom, something Romano clearly does not suggest.
You make a fair point on “doomsday” so I dropped that adjective.
Yeah I also hated to admit it, but I agreed with Romano’s article…but I also agree with the fact that the time isn’t NOW to come to that conclusion.
The only club Romano belongs to at this point is the socialist party of America. He has misguidingly inserted himself alongside the rest of the left wing editorialists at the times and is so disillusioned that he now is probably in line for a promotion to the NY Times. Ever held a real job John? Ever go to sleep worried about how you were going to make tomorrow’s payroll? Stick with what you are halfway competent at… Will Josh become a great quarterback and don’t become another a hole like Mike Lupica who thinks we give a damn about his political views! I’m out!
Yowsers. I actually like John a lot, even if I don’t agree with his politics.