By Chris Glover

The number of different ways to enjoy a game of baseball seems to increase by the day as social media adds a

Brendan and Mark sitting in the SABRmetrics class Chris is teaching.

layer of interactivity and new live-data allows fans to better understand the story playing out on the field. One of my favourite things to follow during a game are FanGraphs’ win probability graphs. Using historic and team specific data, the graphs plot the likelihood of a team winning the game from a particular point in a game. Though it can be disheartening to see the Rays winning chances down in the 20% range after just a couple of innings, the added joy of overturning a 92% deficit makes it fun to track these graphs. It is also possible to look at the play-by-play of a particular game and see the ‘turning points’ as assessed by the change in winning probability.

Matt Joyce’s double against Houston on Sunday was the perfect example of one of those game-turning hits whose impact can be measured by the movement in win probability. Given that we’re not too far away from halfway through the season, I thought it might be fun to have a look at the biggest win probability swings in the season so far and see where Joyce’s game-winning double falls on that list. The below list is based on the movement in WPA by a given hit, so see if you agree with the list, or would include any other highlights for the seon so far:

11. Johnny Damon singles versus Jose Mijares

The Game: 16 April vs. Minnesota Twins, 4-3 win

The Situation: Tied game, bottom of the 9^th, bases loaded.

Chance of winning before: 65.3%

Chance of winning after: 100%

The Hit: After a rocky start to the season the Rays had strung four wins together to get back to 5-8 but needed to keep the momentum going to avoid losing too much ground in the East. Damon, who had hit a walk off homer just two days earlier against the same team, came up with the bags full after Joe Nathan walked Upton and Kotchman and Mijares gave a freebie to Fuld. After falling behind 1-2, Johnny was able to foul a couple of pitches off before clipping a slider down the right field line to score the winning run. Incredibly, this is the first of four hits in the list to come off the Twins’ staff. Is there any way those realignment talks have us moving to the AL Central (the Dallas Stars play in the Pacific division so you never know)?

10. Matt Joyce homers versus C.J. Wilson

The Game: 31 May vs. Texas Rangers, 5-4 win

The Situation: Down by two in the 7^th, two out with one on.

Chance of winning before: 16.8%

Chance of winning after: 51.9%

The Hit: Wilson had been dealing all day, working his two and four seamers and a great curveball to keep the Rays hitters off balance. Longoria was able to get on base to lead off the inning but was forced out at second after Upton ground out to third. With Felipe Lopez being called out on strikes, the Rays were down to their last out of the inning once again. This time however, Joyce was able to deliver and crushed one to right to tie the game. The hit capped an astonishing month for Joyce who hit .414/.470/.759 with 7 HRs in May, and helped him finish 15^th among AL outfielders in the All Star voting behind a who’s who of stars including JD Drew, Ichiro’s corpse and the Yankees backup janitor. Great job baseball fans.

9. B.J. Upton homers versus A.J. Burnett

The Game: May 16 vs. New York Yankees, 6-5 win

The Situation: Down by one in the 6^th, two outs, one on.

Chance of winning before: 35.0%

Chance of winning after: 71.9%

The Hit: In the running for the best inning of the year so far, the Rays torched the Yanks with 6 hits and 5 runs including homers from Sam Fuld and BJ Upton.  Burnett was struggling badly with his location and after a fouling a couple off and getting two balls way outside, BJ launched a curve ball to centre field. The win put the Rays seven games over .500 and setup a 3 game lead in the AL East. It also marked the 3,765,907^th time I’ve flip-flopped on whether I want Upton to stay or not. He isn’t the first player who springs to mind on mention of ‘big-time hits’ but his appearance (twice) on this list sums up well the frustrating figure BJ casts.

8. Matt Joyce scores on a wild pitch from Fernando Rodney

The Game: 30 April vs. Los Angeles Angels, 2-1 win

The Situation: Tied game, bottom of the 10^th, man on third, two outs

Chance of winning before hit: 62.1%

Chance of winning after hit: 100%

The Hit: I’m not sure Joyce is the right man to credit here, though he did at least get a double to lead of the inning while all Felipe Lopez did was take a couple of strikes then benefit from Rodney’s general ineptitude. There is something unsatisfying to winning via a wild pitch, or even a bases loaded walk, and I would venture it hurts the losing team more than it satisfies the winner. Case in point; I had forgotten about this win but still remember Farnsworth’s walk off bouncer against Cleveland (I believe this is an application of ‘loss aversion’ which is well covered in the recent book ‘Scorecasting’).

7. Ben Zobrist homers versus Joe Nathan

The Game: 16 April vs. Minnesota Twins, 4-3 win

The Situation: Down by one, bottom of the 9^th, no one on, no outs

Chance of winning before hit: 18.2%

Chance of winning after hit: 62.7%

The Hit: We’ve already seen the winning hit from this game, but – at least statistically – the tying run was even more significant to the games outcome. My spiel for this hit was going to be about the greatness of Ben Zobrist and how very few people seem to be rating what he is doing this year, however, JC Mitchell at DRaysBay penned a very nice piece and beat me to the punch. A couple of points though. Even on the face of it Zobrist is delivering in every aspect of the game – 4^th among second baseman in batting Runs Above Replacement, 1^st in baserunning and 3^rd in fielding – placing him second overall in Wins Above Replacement. Perhaps more importantly though, these metrics probably don’t quite capture all of Zobrist’s value as his positional versatility allows for flexibility in the lineup and gives Maddon extra options when trying to play matchups/splits. Everyone knows the All Star lineups are a joke but the ultimate insult for Zobrist is that he is behind Orlando Cabrera in the voting, who is literally the worst of the 22 qualifying second baseman in WAR this year (I’m told he is ‘tough’ and ‘scrappy’ though).

6. Matt Joyce doubles versus Mark Melancon

The Game: 26 June vs. Houston Astros, 14-10 win

The Situation: Down one, top of the 8^th, bases loaded, two outs

Chance of winning before hit: 29.5%

Chance of winning after hit: 77.7%

The Hit: An extraordinary game in Houston saw the score tied or change hands nine times with Joyce’s two run double ultimately proving to put the Rays ahead for good (though Kotchman’s single added two more runs which were very much needed). Pinch hitting for Sean Rodriguez, Joyce jumped ahead after a couple of high balls but Melancon battled back to 2-2 with Joyce looking a little slow to catch up. He had no such problem with the next pitch though, drilling into the right field corner, just short of a round-tripper, but good enough to score two. Joyce has struggled through June hitting just .145/.222/.242 and the Rays hope his bat warms up again as they start a tough, AL-East heavy schedule in July. Hopefully this is a starting point for his return to early season form.

5. Matt Joyce doubles versus Joe Nathan

The Game: 14 April vs. Minnesota Twins, 4-3 win

The Situation: Tied game, bottom of the 9^th, two on, one out

Chance of winning before hit: 18.4%

Chance of winning after hit: 69.0%

The Hit: Poor old Joe Nathan, he (and his entire team) will be happy to see the back of the Rays this season. Having surrendered a double to Lopez and a walk to Zobrist, Nathan fell behind against Joyce and tried to sneak one too many fastballs past him. The Rays aggression on the bases served them well here as both runners went on the pitch, and Joyce lined one to centre to tie the game. We now consider Joyce to be an integral part of the team but going into this game he was hitting just .138 with only two extra base hits and this game really kick started a torrid run, which saw him go .451/.489/.744 over the next month.

4. Dan Johnson homers versus Matt Thornton

The Game: 8 April @ Chicago White Sox, 9-7 win

The Situation: Down one, top of the 9^th, two on, one out

Chance of winning before hit: 37.8%

Chance of winning after hit: 91.1%

The Hit: The Great Pumpkin didn’t always deliver great value while in a Rays jersey but when he got hits they tended to come in big moments. Seven of his ten homers either tied the game or put the Rays ahead including his pair against the Yankees and the famous bombs against the Sox in 2010 and 2008. In a vacuum you’d be hard pushed to rate this one up with those against the Sox in the middle of a pennant race, but given that this one sealed a memorable comeback for the Rays first win of the year, its impact should not be underestimated. Down five heading into the 9^th, it looked like the Rays were doomed to fall to 0-7 but after Elliot Johnson and Fuld made it 7-6, the responsibility fell to Johnson and he once again played the hero and finally got 2011 going in Tampa.

3. Evan Longoria homers versus Arthur Rhodes

The Game: 31 May vs. Texas Rangers, 5-4 win

The Situation: Down one, bottom of the 8^th, one on, one out.

Chance of winning before hit: 21.5%

Chance of winning after hit: 85.6%

The Hit: We saw how the game was tied earlier in the list but after once again surrendering the lead, Evan worked a 3-1 count then dispatched a shot to left centre which just had enough to drop over the wall to give the Rays the lead for good. It’s been a strange season for Longoria so far, who was obviously slowed by injury and then struggled to find any sort of consistency in his swing. On numerous occasions he appeared to have turned a corner but the stats show that he isn’t really finding any more joy in June than May. At time of writing he is hitting .308/.325/.692 with 4 HRs during the nine game interleague series, perhaps suggesting he is ready to make a push for a big second half (or just that the NL sucks; hopefully the former).

2. B.J. Upton homers versus Jon Rauch

The Game: 3 May vs. Toronto Blue Jays, 3-2 win

The Situation: Down one, bottom of the 9^th, one on, no outs

Chance of winning before hit: 31.5%

Chance of winning after hit: 100%

The Hit: Living in Toronto (and hence being surrounded by Jays fans) this is probably my most memorable hit of the season so far. The Rays had been behind for the majority of the day after Jo-Jo Reyes and Wade Davis had enjoyed an unlikely pitching battle through six innings, but BJ was able to bring it all back in the bottom of the 9^th, bringing Zobrist in with him for the win. The shot is remarkably similar to number 8, almost landing in the exact same seat in section 147, off right handed current/former Blue Jay pitchers with ridiculous tattoos. I wonder if FanGraphs have a stat for hitting tattooed righties?

1. Johnny Damon homers versus Matt Capps

The Game: 14 April vs. Minnesota, 4-3 win

The Situation: Down one, bottom of the 10^th, one on, one out

Chance of winning before hit: 19.3%

Chance of winning after hit: 100%

The Hit: The winner had to be off a Twin – given that four hits from this list came in that three game sweep in April – and had to be Damon who was in the middle of an extraordinary run that saw him hit the winning or go ahead run in four straight games. I’m not sure I believe in players being ‘clutch’ and I think its often a case of us subconsciously choosing to remember the good or the bad depending on whether we like the player or not (hence why many will be surprised to see Upton on this list twice getting hits in big situations). That said, Damon has had a positive impact on the team this year and he should be good for a couple of wins above replacement when the season is over (which is practically an All-Star by the recent standards of the Rays DHs). Given that his contract was seen by some as a throw in for Scott Boras to secure Manny’s services, I for one am more than happy with having Johnny around this year.

We’ve had plenty of memorable hits already this year, here’s hoping for just as many in the second half of the season.