It was the best of times. It was the worst of times. Well, with all due respect, Dickens may have had that backwards. For the 2011 Rays, it was the worst of times first.
image courtesty of ESPN.com
The Rays have now gone 6-1 in their last 7 games, exactly the opposite of the 1-6 stretch they opened the season with. So, what gives? Are the Rays the 6-1 team or the 1-6 team?
Probably neither. All the reasons that the 1-6 stretch was no cause for concern also apply to the 6-1 stretch. Eight games is a blip on a 162-game schedule and this good stretch is no more reason to start engraving rings than the 1-6 stretch was reason to inch near the ledge. So, let’s allow that particular bandwagon to streak by.
There is a lot of reason to think the 2011 Rays are somewhere between the 1-6 team and the 6-1 team and that both stretches were caused by a certain extremes of luck:
- During the 1-6 stretch, Rays hitters had a BABIP of .194 (meaning they got hits on about 19% of the balls they put into play). But, during the 6-1 stretch, Rays hitters have a BABIP of .354.
- During the 1-6 stretch, Rays pitchers allowed a BABIP of .317. During the 6-1 stretch, Rays pitchers have a .241 BABIP.
If we assume, as I am told we are supposed to, that the average BABIP is .300, we can conclude that the Rays were just supremely unlucky during the 1-6 stretch and supremely lucky during the 6-1 stretch. And, that is certainly part of the explanation.
But, I think there are two reasons that discount luck as the SOLE explanation for the different results. First, the Rays might be hitting fewer at’em balls but, they are also hitting the balls in play much harder. The Rays are making a concerted effort to hit off the fastball earlier in counts thanks to a change in approach by hitting coach Derek Shelton. Due to the changed approach, the Rays put 35 more balls in play during the 6-1 streak than they did during the 1-6 streak (and also lowered their strikeout total by 15…15! That is five innings worth of Ks they dumped in 8 games.). While some of the increased offense is due to luck, some of it is due to created luck. So, I think we can safely believe that the Rays have overcome some of the non-luck reasons for their bad start.
Also, Rays pitching has been great during the 6-1 start (allowing an ERA of just 2.21) but it didn’t necessarily have to be as great as it has been. During the 1-6 start, Rays pitching allowed an average of 4.25 runs per game. If they had continued to perform at that rate during the 6-1 stretch (instead of totally dominating) the Rays would still have won or had a good opportunity to win 5 of the 8 games. That means, when the Rays’ pitching staff comes back to earth — a virtual certainty because they are definitely getting some good hops lately — the revived Rays’ offense is still good enough to win most nights.
All of this seems to confirm that the Rays look a lot like the team we expected them to be in Spring Training. They are going to be really really good when their pitching staff is really really good. They are going to be pretty above average when their pitching staff isn’t really really good. But, they aren’t likely to be that 1-6 team again anytime soon.
Great post, Mark. This gave some statistical heft to the way I’ve been feeling as I watched this roller coaster. I felt like there were a lot of well hit balls that just weren’t finding holes for the first week and lately everything is dropping. The pitchers should be proud of themselves, top to bottom. Save for the one Niemann start, they have been solid. It’s hard not to feel good about them right now, especially considering that they are doing all this without Evan in the lineup. Opening up the paper this morning and seeing us in second place was a very pleasant experience, especially in light of the way this campaign started.
Thanks Brix. I was just relieved to find that we were actually playing a little better and not just getting really lucky. Either way, this team is fun to watch.
Three words Mark, Big Game James! This team is taking shape, and I am really liking it. Granted it is still early in the season, and the real Rays will eventually stand up. I am hopeful that its the Rays we have been watching. During the 7-1 stretch we are averaging approximately 5.3 runs per game. To put that in perspective, if we were to continue that average, the 2011 Rays would finish the season with 838 runs. That is 36 more than the 2010 Rays, and that is without Longoria in the lineup. I do not think we can realistically keep up that average once we get into the bulk of our schedule, but it does say something.
The starting pitching right now is as good as the 2010 team. The bullpen is not quite on that level yet, but they are improving. The big surprise here is that our offense could end up being better this season than last! Fuld, so far anyways, is an improvement over Crawford. Never thought I would say that, I do think he will fall back to earth eventually, but he could still be a solid player. Damon is looking fresh in his DH role, and that is a position that we are historically weak in. We are getting gold glove defense on first, though Kotchman does not have the slugging potential of Pena he could easily bat for a higher average. I must admit I like this teams grit and determination if nothing else.