Yesterday, commenter Travis asked when the Rays are going to have an upswing. And, let’s be honest, that is the question hanging over all our heads because
we all know (hope?) that this team isn’t a 16-win team and are anxiously awaiting the day when they stop playing like one.
After following my wife’s direction to stay positive all weekend (Friday Night: “You are the biggest pessimist. I told you not to give up.”; Sunday Afternoon after I finished the yard: “Just don’t ask. They’ll turn it around while you get cleaned up.”) I have basically propped up my sanity on the assumption that last year’s team hit long offensive dry spells on its way to scoring 802 runs, third best total in the American League. So I looked it up and, well, it isn’t good news.
For all of the hand-wringing about last season’s “offense,” the Rays hung up a lot of crooked numbers in 2010. While the 2010 Rays certainly had some peaks and valleys, the lows were rarely this low and were never this long. The 2010 Rays scored 1 or fewer runs a total of 25 times in 2010 (not counting Cliff Lee in the ALDS which, according to my memory, never actually happened). The 2011 Rays already have 1/5th of that total locked up. More importantly, the 2010 Rays spread those stink bombs around. They had only three 5-game stretches in which they 1 or fewer runs 3 or more times (May 21-25, June 20-24, Aug. 4-8). But, in 2 of those 5-game spans, the Rays broke up the 1-run games with double-digit totals. In fact, the 2010 Rays were held to 2 or fewer runs 37 times but followed 18 of those 37 stink bombs (48.6%) with a 5+ run performance.
That means that the first 10 games of 2011 are worse than anything we saw in 2010. As Travis pointed out, the Rays’ pitchers have been able to keep most of these games close (I don’t have the energy or sanity to worry about the offense, Jeff Niemann, AND Jake McGee so, Niemann and McGee get lumped in with the success of their teammates just for my own personal well-being) but 19 runs just isn’t going to cut it in the American League.
I don’t know if this team has another 5+ run breakout in it but, if it does, this series in Boston would be a good place to use it. The Red Sox look to be fully recovered from their slow start and things could get ugly fast in Fenway if the Rays don’t get things right.
Mark,
After watching the loss to the Sox yesterday, I must say I don’t have much faith that we can do great things this year. But I like Maddon defending his guys, I still think we have a front office and manager that can lead this team to success. Do you feel that we should start calling up players from the minors? I would hate to give up on a season so soon, but why not get Jennings and some of our other top talent some valuable playing time with little pressure to win this season? I just don’t think Longoria alone can turn this season around, ieven if there is a team that pitches to him. I am already seeing reports that we may shop BJ and Shields, which I hope isn’t true. I think BJ is playing well this season and needs to be kept to help build the team for next season.
I think BJ and Shields are definitely available but, I don’t think that has anything to do with the Rays record. Those guys were likely to be available no matter what this season. (In fact, a quick hat tip to Cork Gaines at Rays Index who noticed that DJ has been playing CF at Durham). It is still too early to call up any prospects. Not because it would be a sign that we are giving up, but because it would start their service time clocks running. If we wait until May or June to call up Jennings, we will control him through 2018 instead of 2017.
My name is Mike Ro one of the
producers of the In the Trenches
show on the Calling All Sports Radio Network & Blog Talk Radio.
We wanted to interview you for our radio show.
Please let me know if you have the time.
Mike Ro
My name is Mike Ro one of the
producers of the In the Trenches
show on the Calling All Sports Radio Network & Blog Talk Radio.
We wanted to interview you for our radio show.
Please let me know if you have the time.
ddouglas@intonline.net
Mike Ro
Mike,
I sent you an email but, in case you are looking for a response here, send me an email with the details: MarkHeilig@GMail.com.
Mark
Right now we have a group of guys that would be spot pinch-hitting on a lot of ball clubs. I don’t miss Pena’s .130 batting average, but at least pitchers were scared of his 30 home runs. no one is scared of Fuld, Brignac, Johnson(Elliot or Dan), Shoppach, Joyce or Kotchman. And pitchers are only moderately frightened of Zobrist, Upton, Jaso, Lopez and Damon. (I think Sean Rodriguez is somewhere in between)
We’re free swingers, and when there’s no Longo in the lineup giving anyone good pitches to hit, then no one is going to get good pitches to hit. And because of that, we’re last in the league in every offensive category.
And as much as i love crawford, it’s nice to know that his 5-38 stint to start the season wouldn’t be helping us much either. Although his .132 BA is higher than Joyce, Damon, Dan Johnson, Jaso and the limited plate appearences of Kotchman and Longoria.
Hit Show 2.0?
Nah, to be the Hit Show, people would have to have heard of these guys.
I think you hit on the problem. The club was built around Longo and Manny hitting 3-4. That allows everyone to slot somewhere else that fits them better. Without a 3-4, you start moving guys out of position and dropping other guys in. This sounds like the topic for a good post.
Done and done.
I don’t think that we are focusing on any positive aspects. Shields, Zobrist and BJ look better than they did last year. If you throw Longoria back in the mix we could be respectable, not necessarily good. I think we should hang on to our core guys and star an influx of cookies. We have the #2 farm system in baseball, let’s get these guys some experience playing with the core players we have. Yes it makes for a dark 2011, but it creates a potentially great 2012.
You are right. It isn’t as bad as it seems. It will certainly improve. But, I wouldn’t count on BJ or Shields hanging around. They are getting pretty expensive and there are cheaper replacements on the way.
Good point on the service time, didn’t think about that. Do you think we should move Shields and Upon?
Arrg.
I mean, how unlucky can you be? It seems that every hard hit ball is RIGHT AT the glove of a fielder. We knew Manny was going to go out on a blaze of glory, but the first week…really? We know there would be some injuries…but our best hitter right out of the gate?
Then (pardon me while I shift my aluminum-foil hat) the effing officiating still biting us!? We did get a call our way the other day and I was happy to see that, of course the boys didn’t capitalize, but the call against the ChiSox at first base that led to Maddon’s ejection…I mean seriously…how can they overturn that call but not Gallargo’s perfect game bid?
The season is young, but can it possibly be more painful than this??
I know, the force has not been with us. Manny hurts, if Tampa had known that was going to happen we could have investigated some other veteran bats. I honestly think that Manny would have had a decent season when Longoria returned to protect the lineup. Everyone knew that there was no room for error this season, you could almost feel the wind being sucked out of the team when he got hurt.
I feel you on the officiating going the other way. MLB wants nothing more then for Tampa to fail. We are a small market that is bad for ratings, though no one talks about the fact that the Rays had the 7th highest television ratings last year. I went to 15 games last season, plus 1 away game. The unfortunate issue for Tampa is that due to recent success, the general public outside of Tampa forgets the franchise is only going on 13 years old. The fans that were born Tampa fans can’t even buy tickets yet. I couldn’t tell you what the merchandise sales look like, but I can’t go anywhere public without seeing Rays gear. I have Jerseys, shirts, hats, even Oakleys. I love this team win or lose, and my son is a week old and already has Rays gear on his walls. I wouldn’t fret too much, with our front office and management this team won’t stay down long.
Travis makes a good point about the age of the team that I always raise. You can’t judge the success of an expansion team until at least one generation of fans has grown up during their existence.
I was born in 1980 so, I generally consider myself the first generation of Bucs fans that didn’t have to change allegiances. I feel like my peers and I are pretty loyal Bucs fans and, based on the kids I see around town, I think the first generation of Rays fans will be the same.
Glad to know you are off to such a good start as a parent Travis. Both my girls (2 and 1) love this team. In fact, the Rays seem to win the East every year my wife and I have a baby.
I was born in 1987 in Tennessee, so I was born a Braves fan. I grew up idolizing Chipper and Bobby Cox, but I rarely got to attend anything more than a Chattanooga Lookouts game. When I moved to Tampa in May of 2008 I decided to go to a Rays game my first week here. I was hooked. Even though at the time we were still regarded as horrible, that ended up being the season, as everyone here knows, that 9 did in fact equal 8. I have been an addict since, I go to every game I can, I gobble up merchandise, I only missed 25 televised games lasts year, 16 of them I was at! My son is being raised up a Rays fan, and any other kids I am blessed with will be as well.
This is the stuff that can’t be quantified so, it doesn’t get figured in the calculations of the egg heads thinking this club needs to be contracted. I think we are 10 years and a ballpark away from a serious, dedicated following.
Keep up the good work.
P.S. My youngest daughter, who just turned 1, now says “baseball” and “Go Rays” but has not yet said “Momma.” THAT is parenting.
I consider myself one of those first generation Rays fans. I grew up outside of Tampa with a dad who was a Red Sox fan, but I always rooted for the Braves. During 5th grade is the year the Devil Rays debuted and I have been hooked since. I moved to Illinois the next year and still would wear my Devil Rays clothes. I remember meeting My ex-favorite player Carl Crawford in Chicago in 2003 when he was just getting started with the D-Rays. I remember going to the game in Chicago in 2008 when the rays scored 5 runs in the 8th to beat the White Sox on my birthday. I have been wearing my Rays clothes proud all season, and in fact wore a Rays shirt to the gym tonight while watching the Rays pound Boston. Give it time Rays fans. We will be back, and if anything tonight made this season a little bit more enjoyable so far. FEEL THE HEAT RAYS!
You be sure not to wear that hat around AJ Pierzynski. Heaven knows he is stupid enough to do something stupid. Otherwise, keep up the good work!