So the Rays finished April with a 14-4 stretch during which they outscored opponents 95-55.  Tonight, they are going to add the best offensive player on their roster back to a lineup that churned out 5.28 runs per game.

Sounds like a recipe for an offensive explosion.  Right?

Here is what the Rays occupying the 3-hole did in the month without Longoria:

Here is Longoria’s average career month:

And here are Longoria’s career averages in May:

All those numbers look very similar. So, maybe we should just expect the Rays to continue coasting along as they have been.

No.  We shouldn’t.

The Rays 3-hole replacements for Longoria have far outperformed the hitters filling in the 4/5/6 slots in the order (who hit a combined .248/.290/.431/.721).  So, when Longoria replaces the offense the Rays got from the 3-hole, the players that filled in for him so ably will take their hot start down to the 4/5/6 hole and the players who scuffled during April in the 4/5/6 hole will take themselves to UPS, or to other spots in the lineup, whichever.

Either way, adding a player like Longoria makes everyone in the lineup better because, he allows other hitters to outperform lower expectations rather than simply meet high expectations.  Tonight is going to be exciting.